mprove the probability of success before the implementation of the implementation of the ex ante mo

recently, the winter capital of dust and noise, and some say that this is the inevitable capital down, some say this is to seek the interests of venture capital institutions. No matter which statement is true, entrepreneurs obviously feel the environment has been worse than before. From a few months ago, a taxi drops and quick taxi merge, 58 city and Ganji merged with the U.S. group and the public comment until the. Heating enterprises is an indisputable fact that the industry issued a worsening of the speech. For many entrepreneurs, how to get through this period of time, and towards the final success is the first to be taken into account.

in fact, even if there is no capital cold winter, in accordance with the law of Silicon Valley into 9 venture companies will fail, the rule will be the failure of the 90% incubator, the probability of failure of entrepreneurs is very high. So, what is the reason for the failure of entrepreneurs, in addition to the reasons for the impact of force majeure, most of the entrepreneurs’ failure is due to the implementation of the decision does not meet the actual needs. The most representative cases such as Kodak, NOKIA, HTC, the world famous consulting firm Rand Co — the United States believes the world every 100 bankruptcy of large enterprises, 85% is because the enterprise management decision careless.

visible, making the success rate, can greatly reduce the probability of failure in this regard, the 2002 Nobel Laureate in economics, economists think psychologists Daniel Kahneman "before the autopsy" is a way to solve the decision error.


decisions are always wrong? The price of excessive optimism

wants to ensure that most decisions are correct, we must first understand one thing, no matter how smart people will make some "stupid" decision, including sgyy liaoshirushen Zhu Geliang also lost Jieting scene. Is it true that people can never be right? The answer is correct, the world does not exist can always keep the right people, so the decision is difficult to avoid mistakes, entrepreneurs do not have to worry too much. Just like the story of two people in the forest being chased by tigers, all you have to do is run faster than another person, or make fewer mistakes, and your chances of success are greatly improved.

According to the study of human behavior by Daniel

, it is a very important factor that smart people do stupid things. First of all, we must admit that successful scholars, inventors, entrepreneurs have a common character, that is optimistic attitude. Optimistic attitude allows these people to actively seek challenges, willing to take risks, so they can reap success in different fields. Of course, in addition to these efforts, luck is also a major factor. For entrepreneurs, in the not yet achieve success and win recognition choose the wrong decision, the price is expensive, but not Yinyefeishi, optimistic heart still keep, how can we keep optimistic in moderate but not excessive? There are words that rely on their own vigilance is Those closely involved cannot see clearly., it is very difficult to do, however. There is a good way to reduce errors in decision-making, that is "pre autopsy".


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